𝐍𝐁𝐀 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰

Abhay Pancharathi

The most anticipated event in professional basketball is finally here; the NBA Finals kicks off tonight at 8:30 with the Dallas Mavericks facing off vs the Boston Celtics. Both fanbases believe their team will win, but which team has an advantage? What tactical strategies will head coaches Jason Kidd and Joe Mazzula employ?

Dallas' keys to the game🔑

Corner 3s

Dallas has advanced through the playoffs as a 5 seed particularly because of their elite corner 3-point shooting. Defensive specialist Derrick Jones Jr. in particular has stepped up huge, going from a paltry 34% during the regular season to an 89th percentile 46%. Trade deadline acquisition PJ Washington has also stepped up, going from a miserable 23% to a respectable 41%. These threes have opened up Dallas' offense, spacing the floor for open lobs to Derrick Lively/Daniel Gafford. Boston will be forced to pick their poison, either sagging off Washington/Jones and hoping for negative shooting variance or sticking with them resulting in a wide-open paint for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. More likely than not, Boston will stick on those threes and rely on the return of Kristaps Porzingis to break up those lob opportunities.

Defending Pick-and-Pop

In the March 1st regular season matchup vs these two teams, Boston Center Kristaps Porzingis shredded Dallas' defense with pick-and-pops for open threes. Watch these two examples as Porzingis receives the ball after setting the screen and easily pulls up over smaller opponents.

Having a 7'4 big man with a lightning-quick release who shoots 38% from three is a major boon to this Celtics offense. Perhaps Dallas trots out a double big lineup, with both Lively and Gafford to counter, by putting Lively on Porzingis and Gafford as a roamer. This would cause all sorts of complications on offense, however, as having two shooting liabilities will clog the paint for Dallas guards. More likely Dallas will elect to keep Lively/Gafford on Porzingis and concede the paint to Boston players, as the alternative is letting Porzingis shoot wide-open threes. How they guard Porzingis will be the X-Factor in this matchup. Expect to see far more Maxi Kleber minutes than in prior series to attempt to have a big man on Kristaps Porzingis who will not mess up their spacing on the other end.

Al Horford

While the Celtics made quick work of the Indiana Pacers, the Pacers did expose a key chink in Boston's otherwise stout defense, that being their backup center Al Horford. While in the past Horford has played elite defense on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid, Indiana hunted Horford in pick-and-roll situations, using their lightning-quick guards in isolation to generate easy buckets. Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard hit stepback jumpers over Horford in the 4th quarter of Game 1 to take the lead. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will inevitably employ the same strategy, electing to isolate against Horford. If they can get Horford in switches consistently, it'll be curtains for Boston. Boston will counter this by hedging the screens, so expect Dereck Lively II to accumulate quite a few assists this series. Also, expect to see far more pick-and-rolls when Horford is in the game vs when Porzingis is in the game.

Boston's keys to the game🔑

Kyrie Post-Up

In that aforementioned March 1st matchup, the Celtics posted up Kyrie to oblivion and often were able to generate easy points doing so. Kyrie, due to his stature, is not a good post defender while the Celtics starters are all excellent post players for their position. Watch here as Jaylen Brown posting up Kyrie Irving leads to a wide-open 3 for Porzingis. Then on the next possession Porzingis, one of the most efficient post-players in the league, posts up Kyrie for an easy 2. This has the dual effect of an easy basket or a Kyrie foul. Getting either of Dallas' stars in foul trouble is a huge boon in this game.

Tatum Playmaking

The Celtics' best player, Jayson Tatum, leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists this playoffs but it's the last of those three that is the key to this matchup. Tatum a supremely gifted scorer, has leveraged that scoring to generate shots for his teammates more than ever. He has been able to collapse the defense and find the open man almost every time, resulting in a career-high 21.2% AST%, or the percentage of teammate shots he assisted on. He should be able to exploit matchups on Kyrie, Luka, or either big man rather easily, but not forcing shots is the key to this series. Expect to see at least 7 assists per game this series on minimal turnovers.

Pick-and-roll Defense

Having two elite guards makes the Mavericks very hard to guard on pick-and-rolls. Either Celtics Center switching onto either Dallas Guard is a disaster for Boston so how they play these actions is crucial. The Celtics will most likely stray away from their switch-everything ideology to "hedge" the screens. Hedging is a defensive strategy in which the defender jumps the screen, forcing the ball handler the other way into their original matchup. The problem is that Luka is an exemplary passer, and hedging leaves the screener open for a second. Skilled passers can exploit this window, and since Lively himself is a skilled passer it may result in a couple of open threes. Again, expect to see quite a couple of Lively assists.