𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐛𝐢𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐟 𝐙𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐦𝐬𝐨𝐧

Abhay Pancharathi

Once the butt of many jokes, Zion has, silently, silenced all his critics. What has the 23-year-old tweaked in his game to propel the Pelicans to the 5 seed in the competitive Western Conference?

It starts with the emergence of Point Zion. Zion is having, by far, the best playmaking season of his career, both by raw statistics and the advanced numbers. Zion is averaging a career-high in assists per game and a career-low in turnovers per game, with his 2.04 AST-TOV ratio being the best of his career. His 27.4% assist% is the 28th highest in the NBA, and 1st on his team. He's been forced to evolve this way, without a true playmaking guard on his team. CJ McCollum is the de facto point guard for the Pels, but he is more of a score-first guard than a table setter. The Pelicans' 21st-ranked offense from last year turning into the 4th-ranked offense this year stems from Zion's playmaking leap.

This emergence comes from a nuanced understanding of how defenses react to Zion. Take this clip from last night vs the Clippers.

As Zion starts his drive, all 5 Clippers defenders are locked onto him, as his paint-scoring ability is the immediate threat. At the same time, Trey Murphy cuts along the baseline and Jose Alvarado sets a back screen. Zion recognizes that all 5 Clippers defenders are terrified about letting him into the paint and drops a perfect bounce pass to Murphy, a 38% 3-point shooter, who knocks down the triple. 

Another example of Zion being aware of how much attention defenses give him shows up later this game.

After Zion takes the dribble handoff, Naji Marshall's man, Amir Coffey, is focused on Zion, who recognizes it and dishes to Marshall, a 39% 3-point shooter, who hits the 3.

Zion's passing has been advanced for his position since his days at Duke, where he assumed secondary playmaking responsibilities after Tre Jones, and head coach Willie Green has to be credited for shifting this Pels team to his star player's strengths. With the Pelicans, Zion is surrounded by, possibly, the deepest litany of shooters in the NBA. Out of the 9 players who logged minutes against the Clippers yesterday, not a single player shoots below 35% from 3 for the season. Granted, forward Dyson Daniels is injured currently and is a very porous 3-point shooter, but the point still stands. Shooting specialists such as Matt Ryan and Jordan Hawkins did not play yesterday, and can provide valuable shooting sparks off the bench. Another fun nugget, the Pelicans are 23-6 when Zion has 5+ assists which would be the best win% in the league, and are 8-2 when Zion logs 8+ assists.

The Pelicans' 6th-ranked defense also stems from a Zion evolution, mainly his dedication to staying in front of his man. In a recent game vs the Clippers, coach Willie Green was comfortable having Zion guard Kawhi Leonard. This is a huge development from previous years, where Zion had to hide on weak offensive players and conserve all his energy for offense. However, a decrease in usage rate has led to a noticeable dedication to the defensive end, drastically opening up the Pelicans' options when playing elite wings.

There are still places to improve for Zion, namely his help defense. With Zion's vertical, he should be able to play as a roaming help-side defender on guard drives and post-ups like Draymond Green does for the Warriors. At this point, however, he does not seem to have the instincts to do so. On March 16th vs the Trailblazers, Zion started on Toumani Camara, a 32% 3-point shooter, and Deandre Ayton, a player who has made 1(!!) three this year. If there was any time for Zion to show an off-ball defense game, it was vs the Blazers.

Zion seems unwilling to help off his man on some plays, and when he does, he looks out of place. It's a strange development from his college days, as he showed a knack for getting to the ball, and it was evident that the natural ability was there. 

I don't know what changed from college. Still, Zion becoming an all-world defender again would take the Pels's defense to new levels, since Jonas Valanciunas does not have the vertical pop or lateral movement ability to contest shots outside his immediate vicinity. Perhaps the intensity of the playoffs brings out a new defensive fire in Zion, but that is all this Pelicans defense is missing. They have fantastic wingstoppers in Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, and Dyson Daniels. Zion has shed the defensive liability label and did an admirable job sticking with Kawhi Leonard when they faced off, and Brandon Ingram's defensive leap has been quiet but noticeable. Ingram has always been a long player, with his 7'3 wingspan, but he has finally leveraged that length to become a capable defender.

The most encouraging part of Zion's season is his room for further growth. Don't forget that only 4 months ago the national media was calling into question Zion's dedication to sports, and using him as the punchline to jokes. All of those disingenuous narratives have been laid to bed, and the Pels look poised to make some noise in the playoffs this year. The scariest part is Zion is only 23! This isn't even close to the best he'll become, and that should scare every team in the Western Conference. If Zion commits to playing help defense or adds a reliable jumper, the Pelicans can easily make a title push. They have the shooting, defense, and playmakers to do so. Imagine a scenario where an opponent can no longer go under on screens for Zion because he can reliably hit threes, and other defenders can't help off their own man because Zion will make the right read 9/10 times. That Pelicans team is a legitimate title contender.

With an elite two-way force like an improved Zion alongside Brandon Ingram's scoring and the supporting cast of 3-point shooters, the Pelicans would have no weaknesses. Their defense could be suffocating, with Zion roaming as a help-side anchor. Offensively, they would have multiple creators who can break down a defense. The attention Zion commands would create wide-open looks from deep.

The most encouraging part of Zion's season is the room for further growth. Zion has progressed into a force powering the Pelicans' rise in the West. Yet, this still feels like just the start. If he becomes an anchor defensively with his physical tools, Zion has a Giannis-level ceiling as an unstoppable two-way terror. Surrounded by Ingram's scoring and a bevy of shooters, that version of Zion could render the Pelicans unguardable on both ends. In the competitive Western Conference, a superstar like a fully realized Zion could prove the difference-maker in a title push. Zion's flashes this season hint at the immense potential awaiting if this trajectory continues.