𝐈𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐢𝐧𝐤 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐂𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐞 𝐅𝐓% 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐁𝐀 𝟑𝐏%

Abhay Pancharathi

A common perception in the NBA draft process is that a player's college free throw percentage indicates their potential as a 3-point shooter in the pros. The thinking is that elite shooters possess an inherent "shooter's touch" which can be measured by their standstill free throw shooting - a skill measured without defensive variables. However, in this analysis, I will aim to test if there is a relation between the two percentages.

To investigate this, I compiled data on all 3-point shooters in the NBA who met a minimum threshold of 82 made 3-pointers, along with their college free-throw percentages. I then inputted these two datasets and generated a scatter plot with a trendline to visualize any potential correlation, as shown below.

As you can see, there is some positive relationship between NCAA FT% and NBA 3P%, but to see how strong that relationship is I ran a correlation test. The test gave me a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.173, signifying a positive, but weak correlation. A Pearson correlation coefficient is the slope of the linear trend line between two data sets. Normally, anything above 0.3 is considered to have some relation between the two variables, so while there is some linear relationship between the variables, it is not strong enough to use NCAA FT% as a predictor of NBA 3P% reliably. When scanning our data set, we can see that this makes sense. Mike Conley is 7th in the league in 3P% but shot a poor 69.4% from the free throw line in college. Conversely, Jordan Poole shot 83.1% from the free throw line in college but is shooting at a bottom 10 clip from three in the NBA. 

Some reasons for this could be that players often get better at shooting throughout their careers, through practice or fixing their form. For example, Lonzo Ball's long-critiqued shooting form has been reworked and now he is among the elite shooters in the league. Big men like Al Horford and Kevin Love who never imagined shooting threes lengthened their careers by embracing the three-ball.

Through this research, we can see that attempting to forecast an NBA player's shooting outlook based solely on their college FT% is a futile task. There is not sufficient evidence that there is a strong correlation between the two variables.