𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐒𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐨𝐟𝐟 𝐒𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬

Abhay Pancharathi

Last year, the Eastern Conference representative in the NBA finals was the 8-seeded Miami Heat, who were only in the playoffs after going through the play-in tournament. They then upset the 1-seed Milwaukee Bucks, the 5-seed New York Knicks, and the 2-seed Boston Celtics. The Los Angeles Lakers entered the playoffs as the 7 seed and made a surprise run to the Western Conference finals. These teams showed that a team can be below-average in the regular season and elevate in the Playoffs. 

This improbable run led me to the question, how much does the regular season matter for a team in the playoffs? After that, what is the win percentage required for a team to be expected to make the second round of the playoffs and then the Conference Finals? To answer these questions I looked at every NBA playoff team in the last 5 years and their playoff success. For the sake of this exercise, I defined playoff success as playoff wins with the maximum number of wins being 16, and regular season success as win percentage. 

After manually inputting the data into a spreadsheet, and plotting all the data points in a stat plot we get the following graph

The graph shows a positive linear relationship between a team's regular season win percentage and the number of wins the team is expected to win in the playoffs. To test the strength of the relationship, I calculated the Pearson Correlation Coefficient which comes out to 0.56, indicating a strong relationship between the two. To answer our question, I created an expected value table for all y values 1 through 12, 12 being the wins required to make the NBA Finals.

This chart indicates that under the 82-game season, a team should win ~47 games in the regular season to be expected to win their first-round matchup and 56 games to win their second-round matchup. There are 11 and 4 teams, respectively, to reach those marks. 

This research shows that the regular season is a strong indicator of how far a team will go in the playoffs. While the underdogs steal the spotlight, these runs are given media attention because of how rare they are, and because of the attention these runs garner we tend to forget about the far more runs that are accompanied with regular season pedigree.

So why are some teams able to outperform their regular season performance in the playoffs? This likely comes down to factors like superior coaching adjustments, key player health/availability, and the unique dynamics of a shorter playoff series. Teams that excel in these areas may be able to punch above their regular season weight class, but further research must be conducted to derive any causes.

From a strategic standpoint, these findings suggest that NBA front offices should place a premium on building rosters capable of consistently winning in the regular season. While playoff upsets capture the imagination, they are the exception rather than the rule. Developing a team with the pedigree to be among the conference's elite during the 82-game slog is the surest path to sustained postseason success.

In conclusion, this analysis confirms that the regular season is a strong barometer of a team's likely playoff ceiling. While Cinderella stories will always capture the spotlight, the data shows that building a roster capable of winning 50+ games in the regular season remains the most reliable route to contending for an NBA championship.