𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐥

Abhay Pancharathi

In the NBA Regular Season this year, players missed 11,562 free throws. A free throw is the highest percentage shot in the NBA, there's no defender and it's relatively close to the basket. However, it can also be the most anxiety-inducing shot for a player, as the couple-second pause before the shot forces a player to think and sometimes overthink the shot, turning the easiest shot in basketball into an impossible mental hurdle. No other shot gives a player time to break down what will happen after a miss or make. Free throws have given players careers (James Harden) and ruined careers (Ben Simmons, Nick Anderson). 

This brings us to an interesting question, why haven't players become better at shooting free throws? Since 1979-80, the year when the 3-point line was added, the average FT% has only gone up 2%, compared to an almost 9% increase in 3P%. 

The graph above reflects this, showing a barely noticeable change in FT% but a noticeable change in 3P%. But why is this? If players are, on average, becoming better shooters, why isn't that reflecting on the free throw line, the easiest shot in basketball?

Even the notoriously poor free throw shooters are capable of hitting free throws at a high clip in practice, as shown below when 59% free-throw shooter Ben Simmons makes 10 in a row.

If players can drain free throws consistently in the comfortable practice setting, something must be hampering their ability to replicate that success in games. And few examples illustrate the mental hurdles of free throw shooting better than Nick Anderson's nightmarish NBA Finals experience in 1995. Nick Anderson was a player for the Orlando Magic in the 1990s who shot a respectable free-throw percentage of 69.5% for the first half of the decade. However, from 1995 on, his free throw percentage plummeted to 56.7%, more than a 10% drop. What happened to Nick Anderson's free throws? In the summer of 1995, his Orlando Magic faced off against the Houston Rockets in the NBA Finals. In the waning minute of Game 1, Nick Anderson had the ball, up three, at the free throw line, with a chance to ice the game. Either of these free throws would make an insurmountable 4 point lead with under 40 seconds left. He would go on to miss both free throws, get his own rebound, get fouled again and miss both free throws again. That's 4 straight missed free throws from a 70% free throw shooter, any of which would have iced the game. Two seasons after this, Nick Anderson fell to a 40% free throw shooter, and would never again return to 70% for the rest of his career. When asked about the experience more than 20 years later, he said "I fought off demons in my head for a very long time about this", going on to elaborate on how those free throws shaped the rest of his career. 

The reason FT% has not risen in over 40 years has to do with the one part of basketball players can't control - the mental aspect. When a player lines up on the free throw line, they are given 10 seconds to shoot, 10 seconds in which doubt and anxiety can creep in and disrupt their usually reliable shooting mechanics. No other shot allows for such an interminable pause to overthink and psyche oneself out.

This psychological hurdle appears to be a barrier that elite players continue to grapple with, as evidenced by the striking stagnation in free throw percentages compared to the steady improvement in other areas of shooting. While training and technique has helped boost three-point and overall field goal percentages over the decades, something innate to the unique circumstances of free throw shooting prevents basketball from fully "cracking the code."

The experience of Nick Anderson underscores how a few poor free throw performances can have lasting mental impacts that derail careers. But he is far from the only example - Shaquille O'Neal, Wilt Chamberlain, Andre Drummond and other all-time greats who struggled mightily from the charity stripe demonstrate how crippling this psychological block can be.

Until coaching staffs and sports psychologists can unlock the secret to overcoming this mental hurdle consistently, free throw shooting will remain in the mid 70%. Or perhaps it is simply an unavoidable byproduct of the immense pressure and unique circumstances of that unbearably elementary shot attempt. Whatever the reason, the juxtaposition of improved overall shooting accompanied by little free throw progress will continue to perplex basketball fans for years to come.