Abhay Pancharathi
The Boston Celtics handled business at home, winning both games comfortably. A 105-98 win has put Boston in the driver's seat giving them home court advantage for a potential Game 7. Similar to Game 1, however, the numbers belie a fascinating tactical battle between these two teams. A close 4th quarter led to hope for Dallas Mavericks fans, that the prematurely crowned "greatest offensive backcourt of all time" could take advantage of a situation where two closers would be necessary. Instead, Luka and Kyrie combined to score 7 points on 3/11 shooting, as many points as Daniel Gafford. One game after scoring a season-low 89 points, Dallas followed it up with another embarrassing showing, putting up 98 points. How did Boston manage to suffocate this team? What can Dallas do to bounce back?
Operation: Attack Luka Doncic
The Boston Celtics have been abusing Luka Doncic's defense all series long, with the primary benefactors being Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. It makes sense, Luka is the only true negative defender in the Mavericks' starting lineup. Even Kyrie Irving, a historically poor defender, has emphasized staying in front of his man. Yet, Luka, a slow-footed defender, has been completely inept on that side of the ball being the target of numerous Boston drives resulting in quick twos or kick-outs to numerous high-percentage three-point shooters. Both Brown's and Tatum's drive% have skyrocketed this series, along with the pass% on those drives. Dallas is forced to collapse on these drives resulting in Boston's massive corner-threes attempted discrepancy.
Just look at the regularity with which Boston's wings flew past Doncic. Of course, not all of these ended up as points for Boston, but this type of offense, forcing Dallas' defense into rotation, led to a barrage of open threes for Boston. Boston shot only 26% on threes, a trend that will not continue. Dallas is poking the bear hoping Boston will continue missing these threes, a dangerous game considering Boston was 2nd in three-point shooting percentage.
Dallas has to find a way to keep Doncic off of either Boston wing or Kristaps Porzingis. Luka is big enough to "hedge" these screens, forcing Tatum or Brown to their original matchup. Boston is blowing by Luka far too often, so expect far more hedges in game 3
A ray of hope: Tatum on Gafford
Boston's major Game 1 adjustment was the "crossmatching" of putting Tatum on Gafford and Horford on Derrick Jones Jr. defensively. Gafford, not much of a post-player, was perceived as a non-factor on offense. Surprisingly, for two plays at the beginning of the 3rd, Gafford generated efficient offense on Tatum, posting him twice and scoring both times. This is as small of a sample size as it gets, but Gafford's 25-pound weight advantage on Tatum may provide a post-mismatch. If Dallas can get Tatum off of Gafford, and Horford back on him, it completely opens up Dallas' potent lob game, which in turn opens their biggest strength, their corner 3-pointers
If Gafford forces Boston to respect his post-game, Dallas' offense will revert to the dominant force it's been all playoffs. Look for Dallas to go to Gafford early next game, in an effort to force Boston to put Horford back on him.
Things to keep an eye on for Game 2
Gafford Post ups on Jayson Tatum
Will Kyrie Irving's shooting revert to normal?
Will Dallas look at putting Doncic on Horford?
How is Porzingis' foot?
Jayson Tatum's shooting
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